I’m trying to avoid the easy and obvious Ides of March reference, but…
The next 72 hours or so could produce a tipping point in Ukraine. The Russians are doubling down on their indiscriminate brutality and the Ukrainians are dug in and will fight to the death.
Civilian lives are not collateral damage, they are now targets. Kyiv has imposed a two-night curfew, obviously in anticipation of a full-out Russian aerial and infantry assault.
Missiles are raining down perilously close to the Polish border. If one lands 15 miles off-target to the West, we will have global hell.
The good news is that economic sanctions are strangling Russia. The flip-side is that Putin is now desperate and, it appears, increasingly unhinged.
Representatives from Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are on their way to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky today in a bold show of solidarity.
There’s talk of Biden going to Europe. Not a bad idea, in my view.
Meanwhile, China is mulling its options. To help, or not to help, Russia?
My guess, and certainly my hope, is that while China will express some vaguely-stated support, it will stop short of providing Russia with military assistance.
China views Russia as its Useful Idiots, even as Russia views the likes of Tucker Carlson as their Useful Idiots. China cares about Russia only to the extent that it can create chaos, damaging the United States and NATO. China does not see Russia as its equal or partner. More than anything else, China seeks global economic domination. Russia can’t help them there, and in fact could get in the way.
The relationship between China and Russia is one of convenience.
It’s the Ides of March.
I’m your vehicle, baby…