01/28/24 There are no “Suddenly Trumpers.” – Radically Rational

01/28/24 There are no “Suddenly Trumpers.”

Even as his behavior becomes increasingly “unhinged,” I’m comforted that an immutable principle stands between Donald Trump and a second term as POTUS.

Mathematics.

The numbers don’t work. Hear me out. Trump will not pick up another net vote between now and November. He is maxed out, and the wild-eyed stridency of his true-believers doesn’t alter the abacus. An individual’s vote is not weighted by passion.

Trump has already lost the popular vote in two presidential elections, and in fact got drubbed in 2020. Why would that change in 2024? What would cause someone who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 and 2020 to now come over to the Dark Side?

That’s illogical. A more pertinent question would be how much attrition Trump will suffer among his base. The answer is no doubt “not much,” but it will be a non-zero number. There will be slow leakage, even among some Red Hats who have finally come to realize that Trump is a threat to their lives, too. And the flip side is that this electoral loss will not be offset by any “Suddenly Trumpers.”

At this point there is no such thing. Nobody is neutral about Trump. He has no potential new voters who are “in play.” And we still haven’t factored in all of the land mines Trump will inevitably step on between now and the election.

Trump can’t pump new air into his tires. There is no new air, only stale odor.

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Paul's Bio

I clearly have the attention span of your median fruit fly.Look! Airplane!

Sorry. I’m back.

It’s both a curse and a blessing. I’ve never bought this stuff about, “He who dies with the most toys wins.” But I do think that a wide range of life experiences helps us grow as people, and helps us better relate to other people. I’ve been fortunate. And I am beyond grateful.

I show up on time. I go like hell. I’m a good listener. I hold myself accountable. I own my mistakes. And I have a natural and an insatiable curiosity. I’m never afraid to say, “I don’t know,” when I don’t. But then I try to find out.

The flip side is I’m a lousy ballroom dancer and my clothes sometimes fit me funny.

Stuff matters to me. I care. But while I take that stuff seriously, I try hard to never take myself seriously. As a result, I have sometimes been told, “Paul, it’s hard to tell when you’re serious and when you’re just having some fun. Which is it? Serious or fun?”

My answer is “yes.” But I think that is a legitimate criticism. I promise I’m going to work on that.

This has been the quickest and strangest half-century I’ve ever experienced. During that period, I’ve been afforded amazing opportunities in news and sports journalism across all platforms. I have taught wonderful students at the high school and collegiate level. Always, I learned more from them than they did from me. I’ve been a high school administrator. I spent ten seasons as a high school varsity football coach. I’ve been an advertising executive. I’ve hosted nationally syndicated television entertainment shows. In maybe the biggest honor I ever received, I was selected by NASA to be “Chet The Astronaut” for the “Land The Shuttle” simulator at Space Center Houston. (All I can say there, is “Do as I say, not as I do.” I put that thing in the Everglades more often than not.) Most recently, I just wrapped up a decade as a television news director, during which time our teams distinguished themselves in holding the powerful accountable, achieving both critical and ratings success.

What does all that mean? It means I am profoundly grateful. It also means I’m ready for “next.” So here we are. Radically Rational. It’s an idea I woke up with in 2017. I scribbled “Radically Rational” on a piece of notebook paper and used a magnet to stick it on our refrigerator. I saw it every day, and it just would not leave me alone.

I am second in charge at Radically Rational, LLC. My wife, Jo (also known as BB), is the president. Clearly, I have failed in my attempt to sleep my way to the top of this organization.

I hope you will learn that I’m loyal as a Labrador. But I will admit that this doggie can bite every now and then. My promise to you? I will show up on time. I will go like hell. I will listen to you earnestly and attentively. I will hold myself accountable. I will never be the least bit hesitant to say, “I don’t know,” when I don’t.

But then I’ll try to find out. Let’s do it.